The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.Nate Silver
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.Nate Silver
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.Nate Silver
Motivations to Read
I am very interesting in data science and data visualization. Nate has been a visible person in the field and growing up a baseball fan, his insights into the statistics behind baseball was eye opening. I loved the political reports he's done on NYTimes and now his site FiveThirtyEight. I wanted to get a better understanding of the narrative behind Data Science and so I had this book on my list for a while as a good place to explore the field more.
3 Reasons to Read
- Humans are wired to make predictions, but it's a skill that can be improved, this book can help
- Insight into prediction thinking behind areas like: baseball, chess, poker, the stock market, politics, weather, and terrorist attacks
- Examine the many ways predictions can go wrong, look into ways you can make predictions go right
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